It is
strange how we take our life for granted and make plans for weeks and months
ahead as if we will continue to roll on during that time just as we are doing
today. I got another lesson why I should
not do that, last week. It was a cold starting on Sunday the 9th
Feb. It took its usual course of four days and thoroughly messed up my plans
for these four days. What if it had been a flu? Well, it would have been worse.
Whatever I read seemed only to say it would have been more severe than a cold,
but otherwise more of the same. The one distinguishing mark might have been
that flu would have had a fever associated with it.
Well, what
if I had gone to one of those conferences in one of those exotic
countries/regions? I could have been accidentally caught up in one of those “plagues”
of modern times, an acute respiratory illness, like Covid-19, also known as the
corona virus disease. The one difference would have been the quarantine! An
exotic land would suddenly turn into a frightening dystopia where one would
have to play the 3:97 dice game with death, in isolation. What does that mean?
Everyone is cagey with numbers, but the mortality rate among Covid-19 patients
seems to be 3%. It seems absurd to hear when sane doctors tell you, “Well! We have
confirmed to you that you have it. Unfortunately, if you insist on knowing it,
the mortality rate is 3%”. Consolation, it doesn’t sound as bad as the death
rate! Unless, you have the pesky patient’s habit of looking it up on the web.
You don’t even need to know that a thesaurus lists synonyms of words. You need
not know anything more to type “mortality death” into the box on Google!
Well, that
is a fact of life. Life is as fragile as that: 97:3, 99:1, or 99.5:0.5 sometimes, week after
week. It is always a dice game. sometimes safer, sometimes not. A fellow passenger wearing a mask, on the next seat on the plane. Sometimes it is the engine problem you had read about, on that model of plane! It is sometimes those VIP kids in their crorepati cars! I now know who a human being is! He/she knows a few dozen facts of life
like this, but keeps going all the same, week after week!
लगे रहो, इनसान!
Incidentally,
every pandemic is a chain reaction. In a nuclear weapon, an exploding atom
causes one or more other atoms to explode. The result is a rapid release of an
enormous amount of energy as a whole lot of atoms explode in a very short time.
For a pandemic to continue spreading, all that is needed is for one case to trigger
one or more cases in turn. As population densities increase and airlines carry
millions of people around, pandemics are inevitable. New forms of healthcare
preparedness are necessary. Major hospitals proudly announce that they are
ready with a 30-bed isolation ward! What do they plan to do if a pandemic
reaches 300 cases a day in that city? We need a national task force to prepare
a plan for coping with all eventualities and to monitor the progress of the
disease in India. This task force need not even meet; it can do its job over
the Internet and submit its report in a week followed by weekly updates. If the
Chinese can build a hospital in ten days, can’t we organize a task force in ten
days? Can’t we announce an emergency fund to fight the disease and review its
size regularly in consultation with the task force?
Srinivasan
Ramani